Al Gore's latest slide show was presented for the first time at TED -- it's worth watching, and includes evidence that the pace of climate change may be worse than originally thought.
Some highlights:
- A substantial portion of the polar ice cap has disappeared over the last 28 years. He compares a recent picture with one from 1980 and it's a pretty startling difference.
- Comparisons between Earth and Venus: the main difference in planet temp (59ºF vs. 855ºF) is not due to proximity to the sun, but instead the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, which traps heat in.
- They had a commercial competition and the winning ad (shown at 10:20 in the video) made a clever conversion from the 6.1B tonnes of CO2 released into the atmosphere in 2005 to the equivalent number of elephants by weight. "It's time to stop ignoring the 1.2 billion elephants in the room."
- Developing countries are following our pace of emissions, tracking the US curve pretty closely, just 40 years later.
- A suggested solution: "put a price on carbon" in the form of a revenue-neutral CO2 tax to replace taxation on employment.
My hero Kurt Vonnegut had this to say in his last book (which I talked about earlier):
And my car back then, a Studebaker as I recall, was powered, as are almost all means of transportation and other machinery today, and electric power plants and furnaces, but the most abused, addictive, and destructive drugs of all: fossil fuels.There you have it.
When you got here, even when I got here, the industrialized world was already hopelessly hooked on fossil fuels, and very soon now there won't be any left. Cold turkey.
Can I tell you the truth? I mean this isn't the TV news is it? Here's what I think the truth is: We are all addicts of fossil fules in a state of denial. And like so many addicts about the face cold turkey, our leaders are not committing violent crimes to get what little is left of what we're hooked on.
2 comments:
Just a few observations:
• “68% of Americans now believe that human activity is responsible for global warming.” I pay no credence to that polling statistic; 90% of the same Americans gave Bush an approving thumbs up a few years back; the majority of Germany during the early 1930s gave the same approval to Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party. The mob is fickle and easily swayed, it just happens that in this particular instance the trend leans toward believing in man-made global warming. Based on what? I liken this debate to the intelligent design/evolution argument. We can make compelling arguments on both sides but if you go against the tyranny of the majority, you run the risk of being labeled a heretic. I for one am still on the fence, but I’ll voice my opinion later.
• The proposed energy supergrid connecting Africa to Europe is absurd. If it made political and economic sense, it would’ve most likely been done already, considering that we are starving for cheap (and profitable) energy solutions. Is it sensible to rely on Africa to supply the EU with their energy needs? Honestly?
• A carbon tax makes great sense and I am all for it. The point of contention is who you tax; I believe that Mr. Gore is suggesting that the energy producers get taxed, whereas taxing the energy consumer would be a better and more immediate solution. If the onus is on the consumer to reduce their carbon footprint and initiate the change, why penalize the producer? Here is the outcome of that flawed solution: if Exxon et al. are taxed to the point where it disrupts their rate of return, they will be forced to either a.) stop producing as much, which in turn will lower supply in the face of ever increasing demand and therefore create an energy crisis or b.) pass the cost on to the consumer. The consumer in this case will continue to pay for gas at the pump because they have to; the marginal difference in what they will pay in outcome b will not disincentive them enough to make a paradigm shift on their habits. Instead, if you levy a hefty tax at the pump (think $15/gal+ gasoline) then that will immediately force the consumer to change their habits and look towards a more efficient vehicle that either uses less or no gasoline, like a PHEV or EV. The taxes collected should be directly applied to alternative energy research and development. Carbon taxation in any form won’t happen anyway since the safest political “solution” is a cap-and-trade, which on the surface seems to help fix the problem but really just clouds the picture. The EU ETS is a prime example of how cap-and-trade does not work.
• Mr. Gore spoke of “Orwellian clean coal.” Clean coal is a viable energy solution today. With a bit of regulated investment, we can attach Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) mechanisms on existing coal-fired plants. If we are savvy enough, we can also take the sequestered CO2 and inject it into depleted oil fields which will provide tertiary oil production which can better wean us off of foreign oil as well as curb CO2 emissions. Al alluded to CCS in the presentation, but it is politically untouchable because coal is “dirty” and hard to sell to jaded constituents outside of coal states.
• I agree that there is a sclerosis in our democracy, and we need a strong charismatic leader to invoke change, not just in our energy situation, but elsewhere. Hopefully that person will be elected as our president, not Hilary or McCain.
I don’t think that there is conclusive evidence to convince me in either direction on whether or not mankind had caused global warming. I do believe, though, that pumping the air of greenhouse gases is bad; that energy inefficiency is bad; that the rapid deforestation of the Amazon and similar regions is bad. Whatever we can do to fix this, we must, and now. Ideally, we would never use another hydrocarbon and instead be able to power our lives with other means (like nuclear, but that is a whole other ball of wax). Practically, we need to move towards that ideal. That means making more efficient vehicles; using ULSD vice gasoline or, better yet, PHEVs and eventually EVs once the infrastructure is built to support them; better batteries in our cellphones, laptops, etc.; solar power, wind power, hydropower, geothermal power, or good old-fashioned manpower (remember walking/bicycling?); LED lighting, sustainable building, roof gardens, less suburban sprawl, more smart growth and urban infill. My generation needs to take the initiative on this—I, you, we, need to take the initiative on this—and quit making cute elephant commercials but instead make solutions.
I’m off the soapbox now. Thanks for sharing the video.
I believe the 68% stat and supergrid example were simply meant to show progress -- i.e., there's a shift happening and more people are starting to consider climate change an important issue worth addressing. Regarding your other points, you've clearly given this a lot of thought. My only hope is that more smart people start working on solutions to the problem. It makes me cringe when these issues are politicized to the point where facts are discarded based on the political party of the person saying them.
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